EUROMAIDAN in Ukraine. Background. Popular opinion in Ukraine about Association Agreement before Euromaidan
On 30 March 2012 the European Union (EU) and Ukraine initialed an Association Agreement however, the EU leaders later stated that the agreement would not be ratified unless Ukraine addressed concerns over a "stark deterioration of democracy and the rule of law", including the imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko in 2011 and 2012
In the months leading up to the protests Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych urged the parliament to adopt laws so that Ukraine would meet the EU's criteria.
On 25 September 2013 Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament) Volodymyr Rybak stated that he was sure that his parliament would pass all the laws needed to fit the EU criteria for the Association Agreement since, except for the Communist Party of Ukraine, "The Verkhovna Rada has united around these bills".
Mid-August 2013 Russia changed its customs regulations on imports from Ukraine. Ukrainian Industrial Policy Minister Mykhailo Korolenko stated on 18 December 2013 that because of this Ukraine's exported had dropped by $1.4 billion (or a 10% year-on-year decrease through the first 10 months of the year).
The State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported in November 2013 that in comparison with the same months of 2012 industrial production in Ukraine in October 2013 had fallen by 4.9 percent, in September 2013 by 5.6 percent and in August 2013 by 5.4 percent (and that the industrial production in Ukraine in 2012 total had fallen by 1.8 percent).
On 21 November 2013 a Ukrainian government decree suspended preparations for signing of the association agreement.
The reason given was that the previous months Ukraine had experienced "a drop in industrial production and our relations with CIS countries". The government also assured "Ukraine will resume preparing the agreement when the drop in industrial production and our relations with CIS countries are compensated by the European market".
According to Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov "the extremely harsh conditions" of an IMF loan (presented by the IMF on 20 November 2013), which included big budget cuts and a 40% increase in gas bills, had been the last argument in favor of the Ukrainian government's decision to suspend preparations for signing the Association Agreement.
On 7 December 2013 the IMF clarified that it was not insisting on a single-stage increase in natural gas tariffs in Ukraine by 40%, but recommended that they be gradually raised to an economically justified level while compensating the poorest segments of the population for the losses from such an increase by strengthening targeted social assistance.
The same day IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Jerome Vacher stated that this particular IMF loan is worth US$4 billion and that it would be linked with "policy, which would remove disproportions and stimulated growth".
President Yanukovych did attend the 28–29 November 2013 EU summit in Vilnius (where originally it was planned that the Association Agreement would be signed on 29 November 2013) but the Association Agreement was not signed.
Both Yanukovych and high level EU officials did signal that they wanted to sign the Association Agreement at a later date.
Ukrainians have shown preference to extending economic ties with the EU. According to an August 2013 study of a Donetsk company Research & Branding Group[95] 49% of Ukrainians supported signing the Association Agreement, while 31% opposed it and the rest had not decided yet. The strongest support (74%) was in the Western oblasts of Ukraine, following by the Central oblasts (57% supporters), while the support for the Agreement was weaker in the Southern oblasts (38% support vs 45% oppose) and Eastern oblasts (29% support vs 43% oppose). In a GfK poll conducted October 2–15, 2013, 45% of respondents believed Ukraine should sign an Association Agreement with the EU, whereas only 14% favored joining the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and 15% preferred non-alignment. Another poll conducted in November by IFAK Ukraine for DW-Trend showed 58% of Ukrainians supporting the country's entry into the European Union.
On the other hand a November 2013 poll by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed 39% supporting the country's entry into the European Union and 37% supporting Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.
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In the months leading up to the protests Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych urged the parliament to adopt laws so that Ukraine would meet the EU's criteria.
On 25 September 2013 Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament) Volodymyr Rybak stated that he was sure that his parliament would pass all the laws needed to fit the EU criteria for the Association Agreement since, except for the Communist Party of Ukraine, "The Verkhovna Rada has united around these bills".
Mid-August 2013 Russia changed its customs regulations on imports from Ukraine. Ukrainian Industrial Policy Minister Mykhailo Korolenko stated on 18 December 2013 that because of this Ukraine's exported had dropped by $1.4 billion (or a 10% year-on-year decrease through the first 10 months of the year).
The State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported in November 2013 that in comparison with the same months of 2012 industrial production in Ukraine in October 2013 had fallen by 4.9 percent, in September 2013 by 5.6 percent and in August 2013 by 5.4 percent (and that the industrial production in Ukraine in 2012 total had fallen by 1.8 percent).
On 21 November 2013 a Ukrainian government decree suspended preparations for signing of the association agreement.
The reason given was that the previous months Ukraine had experienced "a drop in industrial production and our relations with CIS countries". The government also assured "Ukraine will resume preparing the agreement when the drop in industrial production and our relations with CIS countries are compensated by the European market".
According to Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov "the extremely harsh conditions" of an IMF loan (presented by the IMF on 20 November 2013), which included big budget cuts and a 40% increase in gas bills, had been the last argument in favor of the Ukrainian government's decision to suspend preparations for signing the Association Agreement.
On 7 December 2013 the IMF clarified that it was not insisting on a single-stage increase in natural gas tariffs in Ukraine by 40%, but recommended that they be gradually raised to an economically justified level while compensating the poorest segments of the population for the losses from such an increase by strengthening targeted social assistance.
The same day IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Jerome Vacher stated that this particular IMF loan is worth US$4 billion and that it would be linked with "policy, which would remove disproportions and stimulated growth".
President Yanukovych did attend the 28–29 November 2013 EU summit in Vilnius (where originally it was planned that the Association Agreement would be signed on 29 November 2013) but the Association Agreement was not signed.
Both Yanukovych and high level EU officials did signal that they wanted to sign the Association Agreement at a later date.
Ukrainians have shown preference to extending economic ties with the EU. According to an August 2013 study of a Donetsk company Research & Branding Group[95] 49% of Ukrainians supported signing the Association Agreement, while 31% opposed it and the rest had not decided yet. The strongest support (74%) was in the Western oblasts of Ukraine, following by the Central oblasts (57% supporters), while the support for the Agreement was weaker in the Southern oblasts (38% support vs 45% oppose) and Eastern oblasts (29% support vs 43% oppose). In a GfK poll conducted October 2–15, 2013, 45% of respondents believed Ukraine should sign an Association Agreement with the EU, whereas only 14% favored joining the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and 15% preferred non-alignment. Another poll conducted in November by IFAK Ukraine for DW-Trend showed 58% of Ukrainians supporting the country's entry into the European Union.
On the other hand a November 2013 poll by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed 39% supporting the country's entry into the European Union and 37% supporting Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.
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